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An independent view of the world seen from Tokelau

The Independent New York Times

Tokelau, Saturday, October 25, 2008 Weekend Edition, editor - contact sumpinein@gmail.com

GREENSPAN: I WAS 'PARTIALLY' WRONG ON CREDIT CRISIS

With this incredible admission former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress on Thursday he was "shocked" at the breakdown in U.S. credit markets and said he was "partially" wrong to have resisted regulating some securities. Despite concerns he had in 2005 that risks were being underestimated by investors, "this crisis, however, has turned out to be much broader than anything I could have imagined," Greenspan said to the House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief," said Greenspan, who stepped down from the Fed in 2006. While Greenspan was once hailed as one of the most accomplished central bankers in U.S. history, the low interest rates during his final Fed years have now been blamed for fuelling the housing bubble and the crash that touched off the current financial crisis.

In the meantime

A UN study says that in financial terms currently the loss of forest equals some US$2 to US$5 trillion every year. Who is going to do something about all this? Indonesian authorities have pledged to stop the loss of forests and species in Sumatra, one of the world's most ecologically important islands. Representatives of the island's 10 provinces, national government and the environment group WWF launched the deal at the World Conservation Congress. Sumatra has lost about half of its forest cover in the last 20 years. It is home to a number of important and iconic species such as the tiger, orangutan, rhinoceros and elephant. The island has suffered floods and forest fires in recent years that have been widely attributed to illegal forest clearance. Two years ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was forced to apologise to Singapore and Malaysia when smog from burning Sumatran forest covered the neighbouring countries. The need to deal with these issues appears to have played a big part in persuading the authorities to act. "In the rainy months, we are seeing landslides and flooding more often, and it is time to make a real change," said Indonesia's deputy environment minister Hermien Roosita at a news briefing here. "Every governor from the 10 provinces and four (national) ministries have signed this monumental commitment to ecosystem restoration of the island and protecting the remaining natural forest." More than 13% of the island's forests lie on peat, which contain vast amounts of carbon that would be lost to the atmosphere if the trees were removed, accelerating climate change. "When you look at the flora and fauna in this area and the rate of loss that's going on, this is a substantial commitment to protect and restore forests," said Gordon Shepherd, WWF's director of global policy. The government has already regulated to stop clearance of virgin forest for palm oil plantations - grown for food, industry and biofuels - but the government acknowledges the ban may not be completely effective.

Read DEATH OF A FINANCIER by JOHN FRANCIS KINSELLA

Tom Barton, a City mortgage broker, decides to quit his business in the wake of the subprime crisis and arrives in Kovalam, in the south of India. In the Maharaja Palace he finds himself in the company of holiday makers from the UK, Scandinavia and Russia. Stephen Parkly, the CEO of a successful City bank, and his young wife Emma are taking a well earned year end break. Parkly falls gravely ill with a mysterious infection, whilst back in the City, unknown to him his mortgage and investment bank, West Mercian Finance is in grave difficulties. Ryan Kavanagh, a doctor, comes to Emma’s aid with the help of Barton, after an attempted cover-up by the Indian authorities, who fear for their tourist industry and more especially medical tourism, as the disease threatens the resort with the tourist season in full swing. Thousands of British tourists enjoying the sun are unaware of the pending disaster, many are equally unaware their savings about are to be wiped out in the West Mercian collapse.

Some are still spending....

McCAIN TRAILS OBAMA IN FINAL DAYS

Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama is a bitter blow to McCain. It is getting harder and harder to remember the last time anything happened in Campaign 2008 that John McCain's camp would regard as clear, unambiguous good news. Colin Powell once tipped as a presidential candidate is the latest leading figure to endorse the presidential candidate. McCain has struggled to find the right tone and the right message amid a sinking economy, and Sarah Palin has come dangerously close to running aground in a series of excruciating interviews on network television. Opinion polls have also provided depressing evidence that Barack Obama is winning the arguments and - for the moment at least - winning the election.

CITY IN A FOG

The UK banks have traditionally been net borrowers in the world money markets, relying on banks from countries like Japan to provide them with the money they need. But the past year has seen Libor rates soar well above the official Bank of England or other central bank rates as commercial banks have reined in lending, fearful that they might not get the cash back. As the money markets have dried up, some of the biggest banks in the UK have been deprived of the finances they need for their day to day activities. This has in turn forced the banks to withdraw some of their most generous products and cut back on the amounts that they lend to their customers.

 DUBAI TREMBLES

With its kilometre high project Dubai prides itself on its shiny image, something that the city has spent the last decade perfecting and it is not about to let all that hard work go to waste, global recession or not. So, if anywhere can put a positive spin on economic meltdown, then Dubai will have a good go. So it was that while the rest of the world waited anxiously for news on bank bailout plans, Dubai announced it would built the world's tallest tower. Dubai is anxious to preserve its image of opulence, whatever the stocks say. As housing prices were wobbling elsewhere, the huge annual property exhibition reported remaining busy and potential investors were encouraged by a survey saying real estate prices in the Middle East will significantly out perform all other regions. No-one sensible is now predicting the continuation of the exponential price increases that have been seen in Dubai since it opened its property market to foreigners, but there is a belief prices will continue to rise more steadily - not least because rents are extortionate and the increasing number of people moving to the city all need somewhere to live.

BOND IS BACK

Bond's new adventure in Quantum of Solace has edgy close-ups of Daniel Craig's granite features give way to a spectacular high-speed chase around an Italian coastal road. Bullets fly, glass splinters, cars crunch, in a scene that - like many of the film's best - owes much to the quick-fire editing of the Bourne thrillers. By the time the opening credits come along, playing out to Jack White and Alicia Keys's punchy title song, you realise you've barely breathed for five minutes. Thereafter, Craig's second outing as the famous so-called "spy" - actually, when you think about it, an assassin - turns out to be a tale of revenge. And not for the first time in the franchise: Timothy Dalton spent the whole of 1989's Licence to Kill in pursuit of the man who murdered the wife of his CIA chum Felix Leiter. In this much darker film, picking up from where Casino Royale left off, 007 finds himself after two people: the man who fatally betrayed Vesper Lynd, the woman he loved; and Dominic Greene (bullfrog-eyed Mathieu Amalric), a big player in the sinister organisation that blackmailed her, now striking a shady deal in some Bolivian desert.

QUEEN LIZ VISITS GOOGLE

 LAID OFF TRADERS QUIT BANK

READ DEATH OF A FINANCIER

 

THE CREDIT CRUNCH SONG

WHO'S GOING DOWN THE TUBE

Andrew Lahde of Lahde Capital Management says goodbye to suckers and flies off into the sunset to live happily ever on his 870% capital gain

An extraordinary letter to the Financial Times from Andrew Lahde of Lahde Capital Management

October 17, 2008

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list of those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they lookforward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life – where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management – with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant – marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other addictive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say goodbye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

 
Since food prices began to rise 100 million more people have been pushed into poverty, according to the World Bank, with as many as two billion on the verge of disaster. Almost half the world's population, let's remember, live on less than $2.50 per day. Millions die annually of hunger and starvation, and more than a billion do not have access to fresh water. With the world financial crisis these numbers are poised to rise dramatically with population growth, dwindling natural resources and higher consumer prices across all goods and services. So as the stock market tumbles and the world economy falters, it's important to remember that it's more than financial losses we are talking about, it's the loss of life.