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An independent view of the world seen from Tokelau

The Independent New York Times

Tokelau, Saturday, October 11, 2008 Weekend Edition, editor Sumpinein - contact sumpinein@gmail.com

WORLD FINANCIAL CRISES

Dow plunges below 8,500  Stocks plunged in the final minutes of trading Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrials down more than 600 points to their lowest level in five years after a major credit ratings agency said it was considering cutting its rating on General Motors Corp. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell more than 6 percent. The selloff came as Standard & Poor's Ratings Services put GM and its finance affiliate GMAC LLC under review to see if its rating should be cut. GM has been struggling with weak car sales in North America. The action means there is a 50 percent chance that S&P will lower GM's and GMAC's ratings in the next three months. General Motors Corp. led the Dow lower, falling about 30 percent. The Dow fell more than 660 points, or 7.2 percent, to about 8,586 in late dealings. The blue chips hadn't fallen below the 9,000 level since Aug. 6, 2003. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 74.73, or 7.6 percent, to 910.12 in late dealings. Stocks Swung Wildly in Chaotic Trading ending at 8,452.23 on Friday's closing bell 1,600 points down on the week

In the meantime

A UN study says that in financial terms currently the loss of forest equals some US$2- US$5 trillion every year. Who is going to do something about all this? Indonesian authorities have pledged to stop the loss of forests and species in Sumatra, one of the world's most ecologically important islands. Representatives of the island's 10 provinces, national government and the environment group WWF launched the deal at the World Conservation Congress. Sumatra has lost about half of its forest cover in the last 20 years. It is home to a number of important and iconic species such as the tiger, orangutan, rhinoceros and elephant. The island has suffered floods and forest fires in recent years that have been widely attributed to illegal forest clearance. Two years ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was forced to apologise to Singapore and Malaysia when smog from burning Sumatran forest covered the neighbouring countries. The need to deal with these issues appears to have played a big part in persuading the authorities to act. "In the rainy months, we are seeing landslides and flooding more often, and it is time to make a real change," said Indonesia's deputy environment minister Hermien Roosita at a news briefing here. "Every governor from the 10 provinces and four (national) ministries have signed this monumental commitment to ecosystem restoration of the island and protecting the remaining natural forest." More than 13% of the island's forests lie on peat, which contain vast amounts of carbon that would be lost to the atmosphere if the trees were removed, accelerating climate change. "When you look at the flora and fauna in this area and the rate of loss that's going on, this is a substantial commitment to protect and restore forests," said Gordon Shepherd, WWF's director of global policy. The government has already regulated to stop clearance of virgin forest for palm oil plantations - grown for food, industry and biofuels - but the government acknowledges the ban may not be completely effective . Good planning As well as protecting and restoring forest, the authorities have pledged to make development on Sumatra obey principles of "ecosystem-based planning", where any projects detrimental to the island's ecological health would be banned. However, the vice-governor of the province of West Sumatra, Marlis Rahman, said help from the west would be needed to help meet the commitments. "We are calling on the international community to support us in implementing this commitment on the ground and help us to find extra livelihoods by protecting our forests," he said. Mr Rahman did not put a figure on how much money might be needed, although he said say technical help was also part of the equation.
John Francis Kinsella's novel, Borneo Pulp, tells the story of how a group of industrialists planned the destruction of Borneo's rain forests in their race for profits.

WORLD FINANCE TAKES A HUGE HIT

Is California too big to fail? California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger credit for being the first to stick his hand out. Even before the vote on the $700 billion bailout bill last week, the wily Terminator of fiscal discipline had a letter on the desk of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson making the case for a $7 billion loan to keep the nation's most populous state running past October. Arguing that California -- and many other states -- have been frozen out of the credit markets like a subprime homebuyer, Schwarzenegger said the state needs the money to pay teachers, cops, firefighters, nurses, and other state-funded enterprises of some importance. California was quickly followed by Massachusetts, whose reputation as "Taxachusetts" hasn't seemed to help it stay above water. And now the race is on to see whether any of these states can tap into the bailout frenzy before all the money goes to save Iceland.

AIG NATIONALIZED

In one of the most dramatic days in Wall Street history, Lehman Brothers said it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, while Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself to Bank of America for about $50 billion. As the fates of Lehman and Merrill hung in the balance, another crisis loomed as the insurance giant American International Group appeared to teeter. Staggered by losses stemming from the credit crisis, A.I.G. sought a $40 billion lifeline from the Federal Reserve, without which the company may have only days to survive. The Treasury and Federal Reserve have already stepped in on several occasions to rescue the financial system, forcing a shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase this year and backstopping $29 billion worth of troubled assets — and then agreeing to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only this month. For Bank of America, which this year bought Countrywide Financial, the troubled mortgage lender, the purchase of Merrill puts it at the pinnacle of American finance, making it the biggest brokerage house and consumer banking franchise. Concerning the Fed, both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke were worried that they had already gone much further than they had ever wanted, first by underwriting the takeover of Bear Stearns in March and by the far bigger bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

BUSH LOOKS AT TRUTH HEAD-ON

Henry Paulson's ploy may not stop credit crunch spreading. What is apparent now is the extent that the seizing up of the world financial system is the problem of us all, and not just a few overpaid Wall Street plutocrats. That European Schadenfreude that saw it all as the fault of the turbo-charged Anglo-Saxon financial system has taken a battering after the bailouts of Fortis and Dexia of Belgium, Hypo Real Estate of Germany and Iceland’s Glitnir, the near-collapse of Italy’s Unicredit, and the government support packages for Irish and Greek banks. Part of the problem, politically and philosophically, of putting together the Paulson package has been the impossibility of decoupling the interests of the bankers and the banks.

WaMu GOES BUST

Government Seizes WaMu in the biggest bank failure in history, JPMorgan Chase will acquire massive branch network and troubled assets from Washington Mutual for $1.9 billion. Washington Mutual, the giant lender that came to symbolize the excesses of the mortgage boom, was seized by federal regulators on Thursday night, in what is by far the largest bank failure in American history. Regulators simultaneously brokered an emergency sale of virtually all of Washington Mutual, the nation’s largest savings and loan, to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion, averting another potentially huge taxpayer bill for the rescue of a failing institution. The move came as lawmakers reached a stalemate over the passage of a $700 billion bailout fund designed to help ailing banks, and removed one of America’s most troubled banks from the financial landscape. Customers of WaMu, based in Seattle, are unlikely to be affected, although shareholders and some bondholders will be wiped out. WaMu account holders are guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation up to $100,000, and additional deposits will be backed by JPMorgan Chase. By taking on all of WaMu’s troubled mortgages and credit card loans, JPMorgan Chase will absorb at least $31 billion in losses that would normally have fallen to the F.D.I.C. JPMorgan Chase, which acquired Bear Stearns only six months ago in another shotgun deal brokered by the government, is to take control Friday of all of WaMu’s deposits and bank branches, creating a nationwide retail franchise that rivals only Bank of America. But JPMorgan will also take on Washington Mutual’s big portfolio of troubled assets, and plans to shut down at least 10 percent of the combined company’s 5,400 branches in markets like New York and Chicago, where they compete. The bank also plans to raise an additional $8 billion by issuing common stock on Friday to pay for the deal.

 

MORGAN STANLEY  ON THE BRINK & GOLDMAN STUMBLES

As panicky selling shook the world’s stock markets Friday, two of Wall Street’s most storied names were once again at the epicenter of the quake. Shares of Morgan Stanley were 24 percent lower in the first minutes of trading Friday, extending a nearly 26 percent slide from the previous day. The sell-off has been driven by fears and rumors about the firm’s ability to weather the financial storm, and, most immediately, the concern that a sorely needed investment from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial could fall through. Moody’s Investors Service added to the gloom Thursday with a report that it was considering lowering its credit rating on $200 billion of Morgan Stanley’s long-term debt. Shares of Goldman Sachs, considered the healthiest of what were once the nation’s Big Five investment banks, tumbled as well. The stock was down 15 percent soon after Friday’s opening bell. Moody’s also raised concerns about Goldman’s long-term credit rating on Thursday, lowering its outlook to negative.

BUY - THE PEOPLES VIEWPOINT

VIDEO RELEASED OF TRAGIC MADRID PLANE CRASH

 RECESSION BITES

OIL COLLAPSES TO LESS THAN $80

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a year on Friday as the slowing global economy led the International Energy Agency to cut its forecast for global demand. The agency, which is based in Paris, said it was cutting its forecast for 2008 global demand by 240,000 barrels a day. It now estimates daily demand this year of about 86.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.5 percent from last year — the slowest growth in 15 years. It also cut its forecast for 2009 demand by 440,000 barrels a day, to 87.2 million barrels, an 0.8 percent increase over this year’s demand. Crude oil for November delivery fell to as low as $81.13 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since October 2007. The price recovered slightly to $82.99, down $3.60, before the start of floor trading. Prices for commodities soared in the first half of the year, with crude oil prices peaking at $145.29 a barrel in July. But the financial crisis and the accelerating slowdown have pushed prices down.

Russians Reinstate Romanov Royal Family ninety years after the Bolshevik Rising in 1917 with the annihilation of the Russian Royal Family, a supreme court in the country has now declared the unfortunate family victims of political repression and ordered their official rehabilitation. Nine decades after a Bolshevik execution squad gunned down the last tsar of Russia and his family, the country's supreme court has declared the imperial dynasty victims of political repression, marking the official rehabilitation of the house of Romanov. The decision overturns a lower court ruling that classified the killings as plain murder, and exonerates Tsar Nicholas II and his family of the alleged crimes the Bolshevik regime used to justify their killing.