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An independent view of the world seen from Tokelau

The Independent New York Times

Tokelau, Saturday, November 1, 2008 Weekend Edition, editor - contact sumpinein@gmail.com

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS TO TEST NEW PRESIDENTS METTLE?

The chairman of a key Pentagon advisory panel has echoed recent claims by both Joe Biden and Colin Powell, warning that the next administration will face an international crisis within months of taking office. Michael Bayer, chairman of the Defence Business Board and veteran Pentagon consultant announced during a public meeting late last week that the new President should “prepare for a likely first-270-days crisis.” Accordingly, the Defence Business Board says the new administration should set a goal to win Senate confirmation of key Pentagon posts in the first 30 days of the inauguration, in order to have a full team in place to deal with such a contingency, an Inside Defence report reveals. The incoming administration “must not wait until June” to get assistant secretaries confirmed and October for deputy assistant secretaries to be Senate confirmed, Bayer’s briefing states. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy,” Biden told an audience in Seattle earlier this month.

In the meantime
A UN study says that in financial terms currently the loss of forest equals some US$2 to US$5 trillion every year. Who is going to do something about all this? Indonesian authorities have pledged to stop the loss of forests and species in Sumatra, one of the world's most ecologically important islands. Representatives of the island's 10 provinces, national government and the environment group WWF launched the deal at the World Conservation Congress. Sumatra has lost about half of its forest cover in the last 20 years. It is home to a number of important and iconic species such as the tiger, orangutan, rhinoceros and elephant. The island has suffered floods and forest fires in recent years that have been widely attributed to illegal forest clearance. Two years ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was forced to apologise to Singapore and Malaysia when smog from burning Sumatran forest covered the neighbouring countries. The need to deal with these issues appears to have played a big part in persuading the authorities to act. "In the rainy months, we are seeing landslides and flooding more often, and it is time to make a real change," said Indonesia's deputy environment minister Hermien Roosita at a news briefing here. "Every governor from the 10 provinces and four (national) ministries have signed this monumental commitment to ecosystem restoration of the island and protecting the remaining natural forest." More than 13% of the island's forests lie on peat, which contain vast amounts of carbon that would be lost to the atmosphere if the trees were removed, accelerating climate change. "When you look at the flora and fauna in this area and the rate of loss that's going on, this is a substantial commitment to protect and restore forests," said Gordon Shepherd, WWF's director of global policy. The government has already regulated to stop clearance of virgin forest for palm oil plantations - grown for food, industry and biofuels - but the government acknowledges the ban may not be completely effective.

Read DEATH OF A FINANCIER by JOHN FRANCIS KINSELLA

Tom Barton, a City mortgage broker, decides to quit his business in the wake of the subprime crisis and arrives in Kovalam, in the south of India. In the Maharaja Palace he finds himself in the company of holiday makers from the UK, Scandinavia and Russia. Stephen Parkly, the CEO of a successful City bank, and his young wife Emma are taking a well earned year end break. Parkly falls gravely ill with a mysterious infection, whilst back in the City, unknown to him his mortgage and investment bank, West Mercian Finance is in grave difficulties. Ryan Kavanagh, a doctor, comes to Emma’s aid with the help of Barton, after an attempted cover-up by the Indian authorities, who fear for their tourist industry and more especially medical tourism, as the disease threatens the resort with the tourist season in full swing. Thousands of British tourists enjoying the sun are unaware of the pending disaster, many are equally unaware their savings about are to be wiped out in the West Mercian collapse.
Some are still spending....

JUST FOUR MORE DAYS TO VOTING

Barack Obama, the self-appointed wind of change, aims to blow away entrenched voting patterns by becoming the first Democrat candidate for more than half a century to win Florida without having roots in one of the former Confederate states. Since 1950, only three Democrats have carried Florida: Bill Clinton (Arkansas) 1996, Jimmy Carter (Georgia) 1976 and Lyndon Johnson (Texas) 1964. Their victories here helped propel all three to power in Washington. Obama is many things, but Old South he is not.
A GRIM ANNIVERSARY
The Wall Street Crash of 1929 was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, taking into consideration the full extent and longevity of its fallout. The initial crash occurred on Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), but it was the catastrophic downturn of Black Monday and Tuesday (October 28 and October 29, 1929) that precipitated widespread panic and the onset of unprecedented and long-lasting consequences for the United States. The Roaring Twenties, which was a precursor to the Crash, was a time of prosperity and excess in the city, and despite warnings against speculation, many believed that the market could sustain high price levels.

 DUBAI TREMBLES

With its kilometre high project Dubai prides itself on its shiny image, something that the city has spent the last decade perfecting and it is not about to let all that hard work go to waste, global recession or not. So, if anywhere can put a positive spin on economic meltdown, then Dubai will have a good go. So it was that while the rest of the world waited anxiously for news on bank bailout plans, Dubai announced it would built the world's tallest tower. Dubai is anxious to preserve its image of opulence, whatever the stocks say. As housing prices were wobbling elsewhere, the huge annual property exhibition reported remaining busy and potential investors were encouraged by a survey saying real estate prices in the Middle East will significantly out perform all other regions. No-one sensible is now predicting the continuation of the exponential price increases that have been seen in Dubai since it opened its property market to foreigners, but there is a belief prices will continue to rise more steadily - not least because rents are extortionate and the increasing number of people moving to the city all need somewhere to live.

BOND IS BACK

Bond's new adventure in Quantum of Solace has edgy close-ups of Daniel Craig's granite features give way to a spectacular high-speed chase around an Italian coastal road. Bullets fly, glass splinters, cars crunch, in a scene that - like many of the film's best - owes much to the quick-fire editing of the Bourne thrillers. By the time the opening credits come along, playing out to Jack White and Alicia Keys's punchy title song, you realise you've barely breathed for five minutes. Thereafter, Craig's second outing as the famous so-called "spy" - actually, when you think about it, an assassin - turns out to be a tale of revenge. And not for the first time in the franchise: Timothy Dalton spent the whole of 1989's Licence to Kill in pursuit of the man who murdered the wife of his CIA chum Felix Leiter. In this much darker film, picking up from where Casino Royale left off, 007 finds himself after two people: the man who fatally betrayed Vesper Lynd, the woman he loved; and Dominic Greene (bullfrog-eyed Mathieu Amalric), a big player in the sinister organisation that blackmailed her, now striking a shady deal in some Bolivian desert.

QUEEN LIZ VISITS GOOGLE

 The map shows hectares' worth consumed in goods and services

The planet is headed for an ecological "credit crunch", according to a report issued by conservation groups. The document contends that our demands on natural resources overreach what the Earth can sustain by almost a third. The Living Planet Report is the work of WWF, the Zoological Society of London and the Global Footprint Network. It says that more than three quarters of the world's population lives in countries where consumption levels are outstripping environmental renewal. This makes them "ecological debtors", meaning that they are drawing - and often overdrawing - on the agricultural land, forests, seas and resources of other countries to sustain them. The report concludes that the reckless consumption of "natural capital" is endangering the world's future prosperity, with clear economic impacts including high costs for food, water and energy. "If our demands on the planet continue to increase at the same rate, by the mid-2030s we would need the equivalent of two planets to maintain our lifestyles," said WWF International director-general James Leape. Dr Dan Barlow, head of policy at the conservation group's Scotland arm, added: "While the media headlines continue to be dominated by the economic turmoil, the world is hurtling further into an ecological credit crunch." The countries with the biggest impact on the planet are the US and China, together accounting for some 40% of the global footprint. The report shows the US and United Arab Emirates have the largest ecological footprint per person, while Malawi and Afghanistan have the smallest. "The events in the last few months have served to show us how it's foolish in the extreme to live beyond our means," said WWF's international president, Chief Emeka Anyaoku. "Devastating though the financial credit crunch has been, it's nothing as compared to the ecological recession that we are facing." He said the more than $2 trillion (£1.2 trillion) lost on stocks and shares was dwarfed by the up to $4.5 trillion worth of resources destroyed forever each year. The report's Living Planet Index, which is an attempt to measure the health of worldwide biodiversity, showed an average decline of about 30% from 1970 to 2005 in 3,309 populations of 1,235 species. An index for the tropics shows an average 51% decline over the same period in 1,333 populations of 585 species.

 

Oil Collapse: Will it last?
After surging to record levels this summer, oil prices have suffered a dizzying collapse in recent months, echoing the darkening prospects of the global economy. Within three months, drastic swings drove oil prices from their peak of $147.27 a barrel to less than $65 a barrel. Oil industry analysts at Goldman Sachs, who had raised the possibility that prices could reach $200 this year, now believe that oil could drop to $50 a barrel in the event of a global recession. While consumers can cheer the drop, producers have been alarmed at the sudden downturn in their fortunes. Fears of a global slowdown have kicked off a down cycle in the oil sector: It is unclear how long it will last and how low prices will go. As oil gets caught in the wild gyrations of the financial meltdown, three major questions loom over the oil markets for next year. What will happen to oil consumption in the United States and in China? How will producers respond to lower prices? Can the oil cartel OPEC stop the slide in prices?

THE CREDIT CRUNCH SONG

WHO'S GOING DOWN THE TUBE

Politicos having fun on oligarch's yacht whilst world crashes

Yachts Champagne and Holidays
David Cameron was labelled "Three Yachts" last night after it emerged that he spent a second summer holiday boat hopping in the lap of luxury. The champagne-drinking Med image is in stark contrast to the one he portrayed when he was snapped in Cornwall on a bucket-and-spade week. Mr Cameron accepted free flights to visit media boss Rupert Murdoch on his yacht off Greece on August 16. He also had dinner on the Elisabeth F, owned by Matthew Freud, the PR guru husband of Mr Murdoch's daughter Elisabeth. Then Mr Cameron travelled on free by private plane for seven days on a £21,000-a-week yacht touring the Turkish Riviera. He was holidaying with 74 family and friends in a flotilla of boats each with a chef, captain and crew hands.

READ DEATH OF A FINANCIER

 
Since food prices began to rise 100 million more people have been pushed into poverty, according to the World Bank, with as many as two billion on the verge of disaster. Almost half the world's population, let's remember, live on less than $2.50 per day. Millions die annually of hunger and starvation, and more than a billion do not have access to fresh water. With the world financial crisis these numbers are poised to rise dramatically with population growth, dwindling natural resources and higher consumer prices across all goods and services. So as the stock market tumbles and the world economy falters, it's important to remember that it's more than financial losses we are talking about, it's the loss of life.